THP Daily Market Report: September 22, 2025 (Mon)

Key Market Indicators

Nikkei Stock Average¥42,325.11

TOPIX2,950.44

USD/JPY141.50

EUR/USD1.1050

VIX Index48.5 (Lehman-level)

MOVE Index180.2 (Unmeasurable territory)

Gold$2,510/oz

WTI Crude Oil$58.05/bbl

HY OAS+280bp (vs. prior weekend)

【Top Priority Item】U.S. Short-Term Money Market Dysfunctional, Fed Funds Rate Deviates Significantly from Target

At the start of the week, global stock markets plunged, starting in Asia, but the true epicenter was not the stock market. The Fed Funds (FF) rate, the interest rate for interbank transactions in the U.S., surged to over 7% at one point, significantly exceeding the Fed's target (e.g., 5.25%). This signifies that the "credit crunch," where banks refuse to lend to each other out of mutual distrust, has entered its final stage.

The Fed conducted massive repo operations, but failed to curb the rise in interest rates. This shows that the short-term money market, the heart of the modern financial system, is no longer under the control of the central bank. The moment the market recognized that the "death of the dollar," the core event of Walpurgis, was an unavoidable fate.

Market Overview and Analysis

The Defeat of Central Banks

The market was confronted with the reality that the Fed is powerless. All asset classes are being re-evaluated (i.e., crashing) on this premise.

Fear Indexes Enter Historical Territory: Both the VIX and MOVE indexes have reached levels seen during the Lehman shock. This indicates that the market has lost its rational price discovery function and is moving solely on panic.
Flight from the Dollar and the Yen's Solo Appreciation: The USD/JPY has surged (yen appreciation) to the 141 level. This is no longer even a "flight to quality." As the credibility of the reserve currency dollar itself collapses, the yen, with its massive net foreign assets, is being bought as a last resort by process of elimination.
Liquidation of All Assets: Even gold is facing selling pressure for profit-taking and margin calls. Market participants are desperately trying to secure cash, even if it means selling all other assets. This is a manifestation of the fear that a complete dysfunction of the financial system is imminent.

Strategic Assessment from THP

The protocol enters its final phase. The situation has reached "Gate-C (State of Emergency)."

The central bank has lost control of short-term interest rates. In the Walpurgis Protocol, this is defined as one of the final triggers for the critical point (T-0). There is no turning back.

The War-Room hereby declares that the **monitoring level is raised to "Gate-C."** The status of THP-7 is shifted to **EXECUTE(⚫)**. All personnel are to immediately execute the final action plan as stipulated in "The Horizon Protocol." I repeat, this is not a drill. The time of judgment has come.