September 29, 2025 (Monday)
Economic Indicators
- Non-Farm Payrolls (September): Expected increase of 39,000-50,000 (previous: 22,000). However, there is a high probability the release will be suspended due to the government shutdown; the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%.
- Other Labor Market Data: Job openings, consumer confidence, and manufacturing activity are also delayed due to shutdown risks.
Key Financial News
- Stocks rise, but shutdown risk becomes apparent: S&P 500 +0.3%, Dow +0.1%. Uncertainty looms due to concerns about employment data delays.
- Department of Labor announces: Economic data releases will be halted during a shutdown, increasing investor concern.
Analysis
The risk of a delay in the employment report sharply increases market uncertainty, obscuring the Fed's October rate cut decision. If the data is released, the weak forecast would suggest an economic slowdown, potentially triggering a risk-off move. On the other hand, if a shutdown is averted, the stock rally could continue. Overall, policy uncertainty is a factor that will increase volatility in Q4.
Overall Analysis (Weekly)
This week confirmed economic resilience with an upward revision to GDP and stable PCE, but the risk of a government shutdown cast a shadow, leading to a market correction. Globally, the OECD report revised down its 2025 growth forecast to 3.2%, citing tariff and policy uncertainty. The market is caught in a tug-of-war between resurgent inflation and a growth slowdown, with the Fed's cautious stance and the Trump administration's trade policies intersecting. The release of next week's data is key, and averting a shutdown is the top priority.