What if the power of the global economy goes out?
The full picture of the "All-Stopper" scenario
The "financial crises" we hear about every day refer to "fluctuations in value" such as stock market crashes and corporate bankruptcies. However, the "THP-DEATH" scenario depicts a situation of a completely different dimension. It means a state of "cardiac arrest" in which the social infrastructure of the financial system itself physically ceases to function . What will happen to our society when the flow of money completely stops?
THP-DEATH is the codename for a scenario in which all the basic functions of the US financial market (price discovery, clearing, collateral valuation, and settlement) are completely frozen. Also known as "All-Stopper" . As the name suggests, all financial activities will cease. This is an unprecedented situation in which even central banks and governments have no means of intervention.
The direct cause of this "cardiac arrest" is not a cyberattack. It is the more primitive, but certain, physical destruction of the power infrastructure (transformers and transmission line networks) . In particular, New York and Chicago, the centers of finance, will be targeted.
The servers of the stock exchanges, the computers of the settlement systems, the terminals of the traders, all of them will lose their function at the same time. A widespread power outage will make it difficult to even identify the location of the destruction that caused it, closing the path to recovery.
Chicago is particularly vulnerable in this scenario. There are three reasons for this.
Chicago is home to the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) . This is one of the world's largest derivatives exchanges, where financial institutions around the world conduct transactions on an astronomical scale. The shutdown of the CME would have an impact equivalent to stopping the blood circulation of the global economy.
Chicago's social vulnerability became critically serious during former President Trump's term in office. He intentionally exploited social divisions based on race, economy, and ideology, and while strengthening the unity of his supporters, he fanned hostility towards his opponents.
His symbolic action was to rename the US "Department of Defense" to its former name, the "Department of War." He explained the reason for this by saying, "Because we have to win." This is an expression of his attitude of viewing not only foreign enemies but also domestic political opponents as "enemies to be defeated." This rhetoric rejected peaceful dialogue and compromise and raised social division to the level of "war."
This logic of "war" was linked to sentiments such as anti-immigrant sentiment and racism, and radicalized some of his supporters. As a result, it has significantly increased the risk of dissatisfaction with the government and society being expressed as physical violence , such as sabotage of critical infrastructure. The THP-DEATH scenario can be said to be a scenario that has become realistic as a result of social vulnerability being heightened to the extreme by such political leadership.
Naturally, these statements and actions by Mr. Trump have drawn strong backlash from Chicago officials and citizens, leading to large-scale protest demonstrations. This has made Chicago a symbolic place of political confrontation, and the tension between supporters and opponents has risen to a level where physical clashes are even possible.
The state of Illinois, where Chicago is located, has been suffering from long-term financial difficulties. The accumulated debt has lowered the quality of public services such as the police and fire departments, and has significantly reduced their ability to respond to large-scale infrastructure destruction and riots.
The real horror of THP-DEATH is that the moment it occurs, "all assets become meaningless."
You can't withdraw cash from bank ATMs, and you can't use credit cards. It's also impossible to sell stocks or bonds to get cash. Even gold and crude oil become just things if they can't be settled. The means of exchanging value itself is lost.
Restoring the power grid is hopeless. The task of finding the destroyed parts from among countless transformers is extremely difficult, and in the meantime, not only the market but society as a whole will continue to be paralyzed. Partial restoration will also be hindered by new destruction. This is not just an economic loss, it is directly linked to the collapse of social order .
There is no effective countermeasure to this scenario after it has occurred. The only way is to make an effort to bring the probability of occurrence as close to zero as possible , that is, "prevention."
Protecting and ensuring the redundancy of critical infrastructure such as the power grid, suppressing speech and behavior that incites social division, and addressing fundamental problems such as economic inequality and discrimination. THP-DEATH is a mirror that reflects not only the problems of finance but also the vulnerabilities of modern society itself. The effort to avoid this is the only realistic "countermeasure" we can take.